In the past two years, the skin price fluctuations hides abnormal violent, which has become the focus of attention for international fur trade. How to evaluate the price fluctuations from a senior auctioneer? What is his expecting for the 2015 selling season? In this issue, we invite senior auctioneer Mr. Kasper from Kopenhagen Fur to share with us his views on the skin price fluctuations in the international fur trade.
在过去两年里，国际皮张的价格波动异常剧烈，成为所有行业人士关注的焦点。一个资深拍卖官如何看待皮张价格的波动？对2015卖季有何预期？本期精英面对面，我们专访了哥本哈根皮草资深拍卖官Kasper先生，让他跟大家分享一下拍卖官眼中的皮草市场波动。
Norman：Hi Kasper, can you tell me how many times you come to China every year? Have you ever counted how many cities/places have you ever been to? As a Dane, how do you feel about China?
你每年到中国出差的次数多吗？一共去过多少个不同的城市？作为丹麦人，你对中国有什么样的看法？
Kasper：For the time being I travel to China around 8-10 times a year. Obviously I travel to the major areas dealing with Fur, but as I have good connections and friends in all part of the Value-chain, I have covered most Chinese provinces. I like very much to come back to areas I know — visiting friends I have seen many times, but I also enjoy going new places, exploring people and places and discovering new partners or new business potential.
目前，我每年到中国出差8-10次，基本上都是去与皮草相关的主要地区。我的足迹已遍布中国的大部分省份，在皮草产业的各个领域都交了一些朋友，并保持着良好的友谊。我很喜欢回到我熟悉的地方，去拜访我已见过很多面的朋友，但我同样也喜欢去新的地方，去发现一些新的东西，发掘新的合作伙伴或新的业务潜力。
I have always liked to travel a lot, and have been many places around the world, but what strikes me the most about travelling in China, is the hospitality, the honesty, the very straight forwardness in talks when you know people well, the joy and laughter and not the least the very tasty and diversified Chinese kitchen — so in all senses I enjoy coming to the main market for our products quite often — only downside is that Denmark is too far away from China — would love to come to China in a couple of hours, then I for sure would come even more frequently.
我很喜欢旅行，曾去过世界上很多地方，但在中国旅行时，感触最深的是那些你所熟悉的人们的热情、诚实、坦率，彼此畅谈时的喜悦与欢笑。此外，还有色香俱全和品种繁多的中国美食。这些都是我喜欢来到这个重要的皮草消费市场的因素，唯一的不足就是这里离丹麦太远了，如果路程只有几个小时的话，我想我来的次数会更加频繁。
China is so unique in the sense that it covers it all. China is so big so it has all! On the same trip I can go from freezing Harbin to warm Guan Dong, go from snow to sun, from farm to red-carpet catwalk and everything in between, covering visiting dressing companies, manufacturing and retail — so in that sense travelling China and having China as the main market, covers all thinkable needs in my point of view.
中国的特点在于地大物博，物产丰富。在同样的旅程中，我可以从冰天雪地的哈尔滨来到温暖如春的广东，离开飘零的雪花，感受阳光的明媚。从水貂养殖场到铺着红毯的T台，其间还拜访了硝染商、生厂商和零售商。从这个意义上来说，中国作为我们的主要市场，我对业务的所有思考在旅程中都能找到相应的解答。
Norman：The Career of being an Auctioneer is very different from other occupation, could you tell me as an Auctioneer in Kopenhagen Fur, what are your responsibilities?
拍卖官的职业和其他职业相比具有很大的区别，作为哥本哈根皮草的拍卖官，你的工作职责是什么？
Kasper：I first became an Auctioneer in 2009. I started working in Kopenhagen Fur during my studies at University back in 1996, so in that sense I have quite some years in the Fur business. In the particular role as Auctioneer, I do my outmost to treat people equally, fair and polite — and expect the customers to treat me and my Colleagues the same. My way of behaving when auctioneering is very true to my personality. I like dealing with people and the difference in people — well aware that buying skins at the Auctions is first step for people in the trade to start next seasons production, so I understand the joy and disappointment customer feels, when they don’t get exactly the lots they bidding for, but as everybody visiting our Auctions know Auction, competition for skins is often fierce and hard — and obviously if we have 200,000 skins in one color and customers have demand for 400,000 skins — there will be a shortage and people will get disappointed — within the Auctioneers we talk about that we can only make one person happy per lot — but we are fortunate to have many lots to distribute to our customers that are well aware of our fair conduction of sale and our transparency in sorting and grading as well as our general business terms.
2009年，我接手了拍卖官的职位。1996年当我还在大学里读书的时候，我就开始在哥本哈根皮草工作了，因此我在皮草行业也算有些年头了。拍卖官是个比较特别的角色，我尽最大努力去待人平等，公正有礼，同时期望客户也能够如此对待我和我的同事。我在拍卖时的行为举止，实际上也正是我真实个性的反映。我很喜欢和人打交道，因为每个人都有各自的特点。拍卖行买皮是客户开始下个卖季生产的第一步，所以我能体会客户在竞拍过程中的欣喜与沮丧。凡是来过拍卖行的人都知道，竞价过程通常十分激烈和艰辛。如果我们只有20万张某种颜色的皮，然而客户的需求是40万张，显然皮张的供应不足，有些客户就会空手而归。在拍卖官之间交流时我们会谈到，每捆皮我们只能让一个人满意，幸运的是我们有很多捆皮张可供客户挑选，客户们对我们销售流程的公平性、毛皮分级体系和基本商业条款的公正性都十分清楚。
Obviously it’s a very important moment for all stakeholders in the Business when we conduct an Auction. As Kopenhagen Fur is a cooperative owned by the Danish mink farmers — there will always be very much attention on sorting and grading and especially on prices from the owners. And as our Auction is also the biggest in the trade it’s the natural meeting point for everybody. It’s also a great time for sharing insights in the Business or just hearing how our Customers business is doing. In that sense its great meeting people during Auctions — it is kind of a party finishing a timeframe of production for different stakeholders in the value chain.
很显然，我们的拍卖会对于行业内每一个利益相关的人来说都是一个非常重要的时刻。由于哥本哈根皮草是丹麦水貂养殖户共同拥有的企业，股东们对皮张的分级和价格十分关注。我们作为业内规模最大的拍卖行，自然也会成为业内人士相聚的场所。分享对行业的看法，或者聆听我们客户的经营状况，对我来说都是非常愉悦的事情。从这个意义上讲，在拍卖会期间与客户相聚是非常好的一件事，对于身处皮草行业不同价值链的人来说，拍卖会成为他们生产计划排期当中的一个聚会。
Norman：As you told us, you have been to so many places in China especially the places related to fur. Can you give us an overall idea about fur industry in China as a Dane’s perspective?
如你所说，你到过中国的很多地方，尤其是皮草产业相关的地区。请你以一个丹麦人的视角，分享一下对于中国皮草产业的整体看法？
Kasper：In short I will describe Chinese fur market as extraordinary in world history — big, bigger, Chinese Fur market!
简而言之，我认为中国的皮草市场在世界毛皮行业发展史上可谓独树一帜，并且还在不断发展壮大！
We have seen crucial and very important markets in old days — Russia has always been a great market and even further back we had Italy and Germany — but we have to put it into perspective. It was a different world at that time. Much less Globalization, much less skin production in the world and much less focus on fashion — so in that respect I usually says that China is the biggest in every respect to the Fur trade, biggest when it comes to fur farming, dressing, manufacturing and retail. So coming from Denmark a very small country you will be surprised by the economies of scale in China. But what is also a big difference in businesses is that if people in China start up a business, they can within few years have quite a big business, if they work hard, are focusing on great craftsmanship and quality awareness. In that sense the business climate of China gives many opportunities, but of course it’s also been some tough years after the high skin prices in 2013 — and unfortunately also some people are still struggling. Saying that they came from 5 years with annual price rises of 20% from 2009 to 2013, most people hopefully saved some of the gains from the good years — even I know that profit margins were very low these years, because of high skin prices and a lot of competition in the markets.
过去我们曾经有过一些具有举足轻重地位的重要市场。例如，俄罗斯市场始终颇具规模。此前，这些市场中还包括意大利和德国。但我们必须考虑到，那个时期的情况和现在不同，当时的全球化程度很低，全球皮张产量很少，对于时尚的关注也不够。从这个角度说，我常说中国在皮草贸易各个方面的比重都是最大的，涵盖了养殖、生厂和零售。丹麦是个小国家，这里的人对中国的经济规模感到十分惊讶。此外，这里的商业模式也不同于丹麦。如果专心经营，注重产品工艺和质量，中国人用几年的时间就可以把业务做大。因此，中国的商业环境提供了很多的机会，但2013年皮价见顶之后也给行业带来了一些影响，有些企业至今仍未度过难关。从2009年到2013年，产品价格年均增长幅度约为20%，过去几年里，由于皮张价高企和的市场竞争激烈，产品利润逐步降低。但是，大多数人还是得以保留了一些好年景里得到的利润。
Norman：Fur prices always remind us sharing similarity with stock, according to these 2 years fur business. How do you feel about the Fur auction price in Kopenhagen Fur 2015?
过去两年里，皮张的价格波动有点类似股价。你对2015年的皮张拍卖价格有怎么样的预期？
Kasper：This question I was quite often asked — from farmers, from brokers and from customers.
养殖户、经纪人和客户经常会问我这样的问题。
Farmers will ask: Which Auction do you think will fetch the highest prices? Obviously because they want to ship skins for the Auction were they think they can get the highest possible price for their production and as skins at Kopenhagen Fur is inter-sorted from different farmers, but still paid individually for the farmers’ skins, it is of great importance to them.
养殖户通常会问我认为哪次拍卖会的产品能够卖个好价钱？他们当然希望能够在价格最有利的拍卖会上出售产品，尽管哥本哈根皮草的皮张来自于不同的养殖户，但是拍卖所得依然会按照皮张的来源分别支付，这一点对于养殖户而言十分重要。
Brokers and customers will also have an interest in knowing whether prices will be higher in June compared to February or do I think prices will be lower in February compared to April, if their production allows them to speculate in the timing.
经纪人和客户对价格同样很关注，例如6月拍卖会的产品价格是否会高于2月拍卖会，或者问我是否认为2月拍卖会的产品价格会低于4月拍卖会，然后根据自己的生产计划对购皮时机形成预期。
From a Colleague of mine I have adopted the saying: “If I could every time predict the prices, I would be dealing skins and not be working in Kopenhagen Fur.”
用我同事的一句话说：“如果每次我都能准确预测价格波动，我早就不必在哥本哈根皮草继续工作，而是去炒卖皮张了。”
The reason for adapting the saying is that very often it is surprising what happens during Auction. You might have a strategy of your purchases, but as the party (Auctions) get started you have to reconsider your strategy.
之所以这么说是因为在拍卖会期间，有些事情往往出乎意料。客户可能已经做好了拍皮计划，而当拍卖开始后则不得不重新考虑计划。
But answering your question I expect a good season for 2015.
就你提出的问题而言，我期待2015年会取得良好的销售业绩。
What we have seen in this season from the Chinese market is extreme. I travelled China in November, December and January and have at closest followed the speed of sales this season. Quite a lot of garments were in stock from 2013 season (somewhere between 30-40%) and also skins still in stock, but the ‘Summer clearances’ and the very great conditions for sale in December changed the situation completely. I must admit I was very curious what was going to happen at first Auction of season — but getting insights from markets in China and going to Saga Auction in December, I could instantly feel the difference in people’s mindset — they need high quality skins, because there is definitely a market for those, and at the current price levels, garments are much more affordable for end consumers and still with a better profit for manufacturers and retailers than just last year — so I see a very prosperous year for high quality skins, but some resistance in the market towards the less than high quality skins.
在去年至今的这个卖季，中国市场出现了一些极端的销售现象。我在去年11月、12月和今年1月频繁来到中国，密切跟进这个卖季的销售进度。市场当中还有很多2013年滞销的服装库存（比例约为30%-40%），同时原料皮也有一定数量的库存，但是经过夏天的反季促销和12月份良好的销售态势，这一局面得以彻底扭转。我自己对于今年第一场拍卖会的情况也非常关注，但根据我对中国市场的了解以及参加芬兰拍卖行12月份拍卖会的感受，我感受到了人们思维的变化，他们现在需要的是高品质皮张。首先，这一需求源自市场本身；其次，当前价位的皮草服饰对于终端消费者来说易于承受，同时对于生产商和零售商来说，利润水平也要高于去年。所以我非常看好高品质皮张的前景，但对于一般品质的皮张来说，市场上则存在着一定的压力。
But what we saw in 2012 and 2013 was a very narrow gap in prices between qualities but also in sizes — where I would expect for this season to see larger differences in prices, when it comes to qualities and sizes.
我们可以看到，在2012年至2013年期间，不同质量和尺寸的皮张在价格方面没有明显差异。但是，我预计在2015卖季，不同质量和尺寸皮张之间的价格将会出现分化。
If we take some round numbers and saying that average Auction prices were 600 RMB in 2013 and 300 RMB in 2014 at Kopenhagen Fur — I expect something in between for 2015 — a very safe answer right? The market have shown how fast it can sell a huge production, which obviously gives a lot of confidence to all stakeholders, but still people remember the bad sales season of 2013, so hopefully prices will be at range were Business is sustainable for all parties.The logic answer on your question will be: I do expect a strong season compared to last year.
如果我们用整数来表示，2013年哥本哈根皮草的拍卖均价为600元，2014年的平均价格为300元，我预计2015年的均价应该位于二者之间，这应该是一个比较合适的答案吧？市场在销售速度和销售数量方面展现出极强的能力，这让业内人士充满了信心。虽然如此，人们依然记得2013年的惨淡经营，所以希望价格能保持在一定范围内，使大家都能够持续经营。针对你的问题，我能给出的合理答案是：我预计今年的表现要强于去年。
Norman：You are a very key person linked between Kopenhagen Fur and thousands of Chinese buyers, would you like to accept my frequent invitations to share more information on our WeChat channel?
你在哥本哈根皮草和众多中国客户中间扮演着关键角色，你是否愿意今后经常参与我们的栏目，通过微信平台分享更多的信息？
Kasper：I love to share information an insights. A big part of my job is to gather information, share information and hopefully ones in a while people will benefit from the information they receive. For sure I personally and as employed at Kopenhagen Fur would like to share my knowledge and ones in a while challenge each other on our insights. In Kopenhagen Fur I’m considered to be very open-minded, but also optimistic in my approach to the Business, because I’m one of those persons who loves stories, every time a person tell me about their Businesses, no matter whether it’s a farmer, a manufacturer, a retailer or someone from the big fashion companies they all have a story of their own — which makes them very special, but also gives me insights that might be beneficial to other stakeholders in other parts of the value chain in our business.
我喜欢分享信息和见解，我的主要工作就是收集和分享信息，并期望人们能够从中有所收获。无论作为个人还是作为哥本哈根皮草的员工，我很乐意分享自己的知识，有时也会提出跟别人不同的观点。在哥本哈根皮草，我被认为是一个性格开朗、乐观积极的人，因为当人们给我讲述他们的经历时，我都是一个很好的倾听者。这些人涵盖了养殖户、生产商、零售商和时装公司。正是这些经历让他们与众不同，同时也让我获得了不同的视角，从而能够为身处行业不同价值链的客户提供有效帮助。
